Bahana: Auto Sales - Strong 4W Growth; weak for 2W

Leonardo Henry Gavaza 
Analyst Bahana Securities 

March official auto sales figures: Strong 4W growth; Weak for 2W Based on sales figures released by Gaikindo, the Indonesian Automotive Association, March 2012 auto (4W) sales increased 6.8% year-on-year (y-y) and 1.6% month-on-month (m-m) to 87,761 units. On motorcycles (2W), we observed a decline in March sales, down 13% y-y and 7% m-m to 619,678 units (exhibit 1 & 2), on numbers released by AISI, the Indonesian Motorcycle Association. Astra maintained its strong monthly car sales in March reaching 49,663 units, up 10.1% y-y but down 0.8% m-m, mainly supported by the continued strong sales of its newly launched models Avanza and Xenia.

Of the 6 biggest brands, Daihatsu experienced the highest y-y growth of 29.6% to 13,198 units while Nissan with its popular new model Juke came second, booking strong growth of 16.7% y-y to 5,998 units. Honda managed to recover from the Thai flood and booked 4,686 units, up 12% y-y and 146% m-m, driven mostly by the jump in Jazz sales. Honda’s March motorcycle sales were 325,642 units, down 3% y-y and 8% m-m while closest competitor, Yamaha, booked 246,203 units, down 23% y-y and 5% m-m. As a result, Honda’s January-March 2012 market share was 60%, just lower than its 2M12 figure of 61% but higher than its share of 54% in the first three months of 2011. Outlook: 4W on track to reach our numbers; 2W slightly trailing Over the longer run, we believe that car sales will continue to achieve a double digit annual growth rate, consistent with many car manufacturers’ decisions to increase their production capacity in Indonesia. In 2012, we expect most of the sales target to be will achieved in the first half of the year.

We expect car sellers will strongly push sales in the next few months before the implementation of the higher down payment policy. The other impetus will come from the launch of both the low-end Suzuki Ertiga and Nissan NV200 in second quarter 2012. We believe that new models tend to have the propensity to create new car demand, particularly for first time buyers. These two additions will broaden the choice in the low-end Multi Purpose Vehicle (MPV) segment that accounts for the largest portion of Indonesian car sales.

Conversely, we note that 2W sales volumes are slightly trailing our full-year growth estimate of 8.2 million units (+2% y-y), compared to 2W sales for the first three months of this year of 1.9 million units (24% of our full-year – which is already one of the lowest among our peers), down 2.7% y-y and slightly lower than the first three months of last year percentage to full-year of 25%.

Despite continued strong March automotive sales, we maintain our NEUTRAL stance on the auto sector due to the impact of higher down payments starting from the second half of this year. Having said that, we note that in order to achieve our 4W sales target of 1 million units, the remaining 9 months of 2012 would only require average monthly sales of 83,266 vehicles, lower than March’s sales of 87,761. We advise investors to buy on dips, as we expect positive news outflows to persist in the coming months.



Exhibit 1. 4W sales summary

Indonesia
Astra
Honda
Mitsubishi
Suzuki
Nissan

Units (000)
y-y (%)
Units (000)
y-y (%)
Mkt sh* (%)
Units (000)
y-y (%)
Units (000)
y-y (%)
Units (000)
y-y (%)
Units (000)
y-y (%)
Mar-12
88
6.8
50
10.1
56.6
5
11.8
12
(8.4)
7
(11.2)
6
16.7
Feb-12
86
24.2
50
31.7
57.9
2
(58.2)
13
20.6
8
24.8
6
30.8
3M12
251
11.0
145
15.8
58.0
8
(40.5)
37
6.8
21
(1.1)
17
25.8
Source: Gaikindo
Exhibit 2. 2W sales summary

Indonesia
Honda
Yamaha
Suzuki

Units (000)
y-y
(%)
Units (000)
y-y
(%)
Market share (%)
Units (000)
y-y
(%)
Units (000)
y-y
(%)
Mar-12
620
(12.8)
326
(3.8)
52.6
246
(22.7)
36
(18.5)
Feb-12
666
9.2
356
11.2
53.4
258
6.6
41
2.6
3M12
1,932
(2.7)
1,064
7.5
60.0
709
(15.2)
127
(4.2)
Source: AISI