Equity market strategy: IDR & interest rate winners & losers


by Harry Su
Senior Associate Director
Head of Research
Bahana Securities
(published also at The Jakarta Post daily)


The Indonesian market’s volatility is currently confronting triple whammies in the form of:  1. Scaled-back QE, 2. IDR weakness and 3. Higher interest rates.  These factors have caused a 10% market pullback since its recent peak at 5,215.  Note that back in 2005 and 2008 when the government implemented fuel price hikes the index corrected 12% and 16% respectively over a period of one month. 

At this stage of the cycle, we advise investors to begin accumulating stocks at around the 4,500-4600 level with the view of adding to positions in the event the market would overshoot on the way down. According to our technical analyst, the market could head to 4,200. 


With 4% IDR depreciation ytd and the prospect of higher interest rates on the back of planned fuel price increases, we have implemented sensitivity analysis to gauge the overall impact on the overall market as well as on individual stocks under our coverage. 

On the market as a whole, our study shows that every 1% interest rate hike, EPS growth for the market would drop by 0.7ppt, reflecting 7.5% y-y growth from 8.2% currently (ceteris paribus).  We note that the market is more sensitive to IDR depreciation (i.e. every 1% weaker local currency = 1.1ppt lower market EPS growth), partly as listed Indonesian companies, since the Asian 1998 financial crisis, have undergone balance sheet repair with 2013 market net gearing of just 31.9%, down from 38.5% in 2012.        

Exhibit 1 shows the full impact of IDR depreciation combined with increased interest rates. From this list, and taking into account their respective fundamentals, we have come up with our top 10 non-financial picks (exhibit 2). On financials, we note that even a previous safe haven like BBCA is confronting challenges if interest rates were to go up due to: 1. High exposure on fixed rate mortgages and 2. High LDR resulting in the bank having to reprice time deposits from 3.25% to 5%.

On the non-financial stocks, we are turning more positive on CPO plays given IDR deprecation with AALI and ANJT as our top plantation picks.  PGAS is another defensive name we like, particularly given 14% drop since the market’s recent peak on 20 May 2013.  Over the same period, our other top picks have seen an average 7% drop over the same period. Happy trading!      



Exhibit1. Sensitivity on IDR depreciation and interest rate, net impact
Ticker
Sensitivity on
net profit
for@1% IDR Depreciation (%)
Sensitivity on
net profit
for @1% interest rate hike (%)
Total
Ticker
Sensitivity on
net profit
for@1% IDR Depreciation (%)
Sensitivity on
net profit
for @1% interest rate hike (%)
Total
TINS
5.2
(0.3)
4.9
CTRP
0.1
(1.7)
(1.6)
LSIP
2.6
1.8
4.4
ADRO
0.0
(1.6)
(1.6)
AALI
3.4
0.2
3.6
BJBR
0.0
(1.6)
(1.6)
UNTR
2.6
0.8
3.4
CPIN
(1.7)
0.0
(1.7)
PTBA
0.5
2.6
3.1
BBKP
0.0
(1.7)
(1.7)
SGRO
3.4
(0.5)
2.9
BBTN
0.0
(1.7)
(1.7)
BBCA
0.0
2.5
2.5
ADHI
0.5
(2.2)
(1.7)
BMRI
0.0
2.2
2.2
JPFA
(1.5)
(0.2)
(1.7)
SIMP
4.0
(1.9)
2.1
UNVR
(1.5)
(0.2)
(1.7)
BSDE
0.0
2.0
2.0
JCI
(1.1)
(0.7)
(1.8)
ANTM
1.5
0.4
1.9
BWPT
2.3
(4.1)
(1.8)
ANJT
0.0
1.7
1.7
CMNP
(0.3)
(1.5)
(1.8)
SSIA
1.5
0.1
1.6
ACES
(2.5)
0.4
(2.1)
CASS
1.6
0.0
1.6
TELE
(1.8)
(0.3)
(2.1)
BBNI
0.0
1.3
1.3
ICBP
(3.4)
0.9
(2.5)
SMRA
(0.5)
1.8
1.3
ROTI
(2.2)
(0.3)
(2.5)
ITMG
0.0
1.2
1.2
BBRI
0.0
(2.5)
(2.5)
HRUM
0.0
1.1
1.1
BDMN
0.0
(2.6)
(2.6)
TOTL
(0.2)
1.3
1.1
APLN
(0.7)
(2.5)
(3.2)
PGAS
0.0
1.0
1.0
WINS
0.0
(3.5)
(3.5)
WIKA
(0.5)
1.4
0.9
JSMR
0.1
(3.7)
(3.6)
BEST
0.5
0.3
0.8
IMAS
(1.8)
(2.0)
(3.8)
SCMA
(0.0)
0.5
0.5
PTPP
(0.8)
(3.0)
(3.8)
LPCK
(0.1)
0.5
0.4
EXCL
(1.0)
(3.2)
(4.2)
ASRI
0.1
0.2
0.3
MAIN
(4.0)
(0.3)
(4.3)
ASII
1.4
(1.2)
0.2
HERO
(2.3)
(2.1)
(4.4)
RALS
(2.1)
2.2
0.1
PSAB
0.0
(4.7)
(4.7)
INTP
(0.9)
1.0
0.1
RANC
(4.5)
(0.5)
(5.0)
WSKT
(2.1)
1.9
(0.2)
ERAA
(4.9)
(0.3)
(5.2)
SMGR
(0.8)
0.2
(0.6)
MAPI
(4.8)
(1.1)
(5.9)
LPKR
1.3
(1.9)
(0.6)
GZCO
1.7
(7.7)
(6.0)
INCO
0.0
(0.6)
(0.6)
KIJA
(3.0)
(3.1)
(6.1)
KLBF
(1.8)
1.1
(0.7)
BORN
0.0
(6.7)
(6.7)
CTRA
(0.7)
(0.1)
(0.8)
GJTL
(5.9)
(1.5)
(7.4)
GIAA
0.0
(0.9)
(0.9)
TOWR
(3.9)
(4.1)
(8.0)
BJTM
0.0
(0.9)
(0.9)
BTPN
0.0
(8.0)
(8.0)
AKRA
(1.5)
0.4
(1.1)
BTEL
(5.2)
(4.5)
(9.7)
TSPC
(2.5)
1.4
(1.1)
ASSA
0.4
(10.8)
(10.4)
INDF
(3.1)
1.6
(1.5)
MEDC
0.0
(10.8)
(10.8)
TLKM
(0.9)
(0.7)
(1.6)
BUMI
0.0
(19.1)
(19.1)
GGRM
(0.7)
(0.9)
(1.6)
ISAT
(17.9)
(24.0)
(41.9)
Source: Bahana estimates

Exhibit 2. Top 10 picks, 2014F valuation

Mkt cap.
Price
TP
Upside
EPS gwt.
PE
P/BV
Yield
ROE

(USDm)
(IDR)
(IDR)
(%)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(%)
(%)
PGAS
13,596
5,400
6,800
26
2.1
14.5
4.8
3.9
38.2
INTP
8,335
21,800
25,300
16
16.1
12.5
2.8
2.4
24.8
AALI
3,427
20,950
24,000
15
31.3
13.3
3.1
3.7
25.0
BSDE
3,326
1,830
2,125
16
27.5
11.3
2.6
1.4
25.5
SMRA
1,910
2,550
3,200
25
22.1
18.8
4.0
1.1
23.5
ASRI
1,735
850
1,360
60
16.8
9.4
2.3
2.7
27.3
WIKA
1,464
2,300
3,200
39
28.2
18.7
4.1
1.5
24.0
BEST
720
720
1,190
65
24.4
7.1
2.0
2.8
35.8
ANJT
485
1,400
1,650
18
10.5
7.5
9.7
0.0
12.7
CASS
178
820
1,010
23
16.3
11.8
3.0
0.9
28.6
Source:  Bloomberg, Bahana estimates