August official auto sales: Weak on fewer working days

by Leonardo Henry Gavaza

Bahana Securities Research Analyst (Jakarta Post today)

Based on sales figures released by Gaikindo (4W Association) and AISI (2W Association), August 4W sales of 77,961 units were down 31% m-m but up 2% y-y, with 2W sales of 488,983 units down 30% m-m but up 14% y-y (exhibits1 & 2), due to fewer working days in August on the back of Lebaran holidays.

ASII booked monthly sales of 38,776 units, down 33% m-m and 2% y-y, reflecting a smaller market share of 49.7% (Jul-13: 51.2%; Aug-12: 51.7%).  This is partly caused by Mitsubishi’s strong sales of 10,847 units, down 25% m-m but up 14% y-y, helped by strong commercial segment (trucks and pickups) sales, and Suzuki’s 12,006 units, down 29% m-m but up 19% y-y due to high demand for the Ertiga model.  For Nissan, we see 15% lower y-y sales to 4,500 units on tight competition.

Over to 2W: Honda’s August sales reached 294k units, down 29% m-m but up 12% y-y, while Yamaha sales increased to 153k units, down 33% m-m but up 15% y-y.  In 8M13, Honda market share reached 60.1%, higher than 8M12’s level of 57.5%.

Jalan2Economics: Asian PMIs: Bad news for commodity-lined stocks

by Harry Su - Head of Research Bahana Securities

With Indonesia’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) having been newly established, we rely on PMIs (exhibit 2) around the region to provide us with a gauge on Asia’s manufacturing sector and global growth in general.

Recently released PMIs for Asia were undoubtedly weak.  With global growth likely to remain weak, exacerbated by the condition in the euro zone, we expect the manufacturing sector across the region to be in doldrums in the remaining part of this year and at least into the early part of 2013. 

Jalan2Economy: Q2 2012 corporate earnings preview: The good, the bad and the ugly

The Jakarta Post (20/07)

By Harry SU - Head of Research Bahana Securities
With second quarter 2012 (2Q12) result season upon us, we provide investors with a preview of market performance and reviews of sectors and stocks under our coverage (75 companies, equivalent to 80 percent of total market cap of the index). 

For the market as a whole, we expect 2Q12 year-on-year (y-y) operating profit growth to decelerate from 20.1% in 2Q11 to 15.0% (exhibit 1), but up when compared to 1Q12 level of 10.0% y-y growth. 

On the bottom line, market growth also decelerated from 26.5% y-y in 2Q11 to 15.5%, but higher than 1Q12 level of 15.6%.  In terms of aggregate 1H12 figures, the market’s operating profit growth reached 12.5% y-y (1H11: 23.7%) with net profit growth of 12.4% (1H11: 29.5%).       

We expect 6 sectors (exhibit 2), “the good”, to register higher growth than the overall market performance.  The oil & gas sector continues to be skewed towards PGAS’ performance, which we expect to book strong operating and net profit growth due to delay in upstream price increases coupled with low base in 2011. 

Jalan2Economic - Bahana : BI Rate May Stay on Tamed Inflation

Bahana Article at The Jakarta Post

By Arga Samudro - Economist Bahana Securities 

April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.21 percent m-m from March’s level of 0.07 percent. This result was slightly higher than our estimate of 0.18 percent but in line with consensus’ 0.20 percent. The monthly CPI also translated to higher April’s CPI of 4.50 percent y-y compared to previous level of 3.97 percent (exhibit 1).

We note that several commodity prices namely chilies, onions, sugar, cooking oil, processed foods, cigarettes, concrete steel, rentals and airlines tariffs were the main drivers for April’s inflation.  On the flip side, lower gold price in April allowed core inflation to slightly ease to 4.23 percent y-y compared to previous level of 4.25 percent.

Jalan2Economic: 1Q12 corporate results preview: The good, the bad & the ugly

Harry Su 
Senior Vice President Head of Research 
Bahana Securities

Following last month’s announcements of Indonesian corporates’ full-year 2011 results, which were mostly lower than expected, we have fined tuned our 2012 earnings of all the 73 stocks in our coverage (80% of total market capitalization). The result has been a slight decline in the overall 2012 y-y market EPS growth from 15.1% to 13.7%. Additionally, with 1Q12 earnings season upon us, we have formed 1Q12 results preview to help investors ascertain which sectors/ stocks would surprise on the upside or downside.

Thus, far five companies have reported 1Q12 earnings with Bank Danamon (BDMN) reporting result which was in line with our expectation. On a positive note, upside earnings surprise came from Kalbe Farma (KLBF) and Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) while the plantation sector has registered negative earnings surprise with disappointing results coming from both Astra Agro (AALI) and BW Plantation (BWPT).