Leonardo Henry Gavaza
Analyst
Bahana Securities
March official auto sales figures: Strong 4W growth; Weak for 2W
Based on sales figures released by Gaikindo, the Indonesian Automotive Association, March 2012 auto (4W) sales increased 6.8% year-on-year (y-y) and 1.6% month-on-month (m-m) to 87,761 units. On motorcycles (2W), we observed a decline in March sales, down 13% y-y and 7% m-m to 619,678 units (exhibit 1 & 2), on numbers released by AISI, the Indonesian Motorcycle Association.
Astra maintained its strong monthly car sales in March reaching 49,663 units, up 10.1% y-y but down 0.8% m-m, mainly supported by the continued strong sales of its newly launched models Avanza and Xenia.
Of the 6 biggest brands, Daihatsu experienced the highest y-y growth of 29.6% to 13,198 units while Nissan with its popular new model Juke came second, booking strong growth of 16.7% y-y to 5,998 units. Honda managed to recover from the Thai flood and booked 4,686 units, up 12% y-y and 146% m-m, driven mostly by the jump in Jazz sales.
Honda’s March motorcycle sales were 325,642 units, down 3% y-y and 8% m-m while closest competitor, Yamaha, booked 246,203 units, down 23% y-y and 5% m-m. As a result, Honda’s January-March 2012 market share was 60%, just lower than its 2M12 figure of 61% but higher than its share of 54% in the first three months of 2011.
Outlook: 4W on track to reach our numbers; 2W slightly trailing
Over the longer run, we believe that car sales will continue to achieve a double digit annual growth rate, consistent with many car manufacturers’ decisions to increase their production capacity in Indonesia.
In 2012, we expect most of the sales target to be will achieved in the first half of the year.
We expect car sellers will strongly push sales in the next few months before the implementation of the higher down payment policy. The other impetus will come from the launch of both the low-end Suzuki Ertiga and Nissan NV200 in second quarter 2012. We believe that new models tend to have the propensity to create new car demand, particularly for first time buyers. These two additions will broaden the choice in the low-end Multi Purpose Vehicle (MPV) segment that accounts for the largest portion of Indonesian car sales.
